Secretary Duncan's Fuzzy Numbers

How did the Secretary of Education overestimate that 82 percent of schools would fail to meet requirements under the No Child Left Behind Act by such a wide margin? The real number of schools that would fail is less than half, 48 percent, or 34 percentage points less than Secretary Duncan’s estimate. According to a report from the Center for Education Policy, the number of schools that would fail to meet adequate yearly progress (AYP) has increased from 39 percent in 2010, but is not nearly as high as the Department’s estimate of 82 percent.

The Secretary was unfortunately utilizing fuzzy math as a scare tactic to spur Congress to rewrite the Elementary and Secondary Education Act (ESEA). This not only calls into question the reliability and objectivity of his department’s analysis, but reveals that he was not letting the research data drive and inform his decisions, but letting his political agenda drive his data results. The Secretary has so much in terms of bi-partisan consensus on what makes for good policy in education and yet he still resorts to tactical moves to urge congress to work with him. ESEA is four years overdue for reauthorization and NCLB needs to be fixed, and the Secretary needs to work with congress rather than try to bypass or scare them into compliance.