27 February 2018

AAN Releases Memo on the Early Effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: CORRY BLISS, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
DATE: FEBRUARY 27, 2018
RE: EARLY EFFECTS OF THE TAX CUTS AND JOBS ACT

The single most important issue this year is whether middle-class families believe that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is lowering their taxes. While there is much work left to be done, there has been positive movement over the past several weeks in AAN’s surveys and focus groups across the country.

This year, the American Action Network has conducted surveys about the effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 60 districts. Similar to recently released public polling, swings in favor of the tax bill are occurring across the country by wide margins and are directly responsible for the improved standing of the Republican party.

Since November, AAN has tracked whether Americans think the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will increase their taxes, decrease their taxes, or keep their taxes about the same. Last month, more Americans thought the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would raise their taxes. Over the past month, as Americans across the country have learned more about the tax cuts, there have been major changes – even in states like New York and California, where the bill received the most negative coverage:

Effects of The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
Will the new tax law raise your taxes, lower your taxes or will your taxes remain the same? JANUARY FEBRUARY DIFFERENCE
NY-24
Raise 41% 31% -10
Lower 26% 32% +6
Remain the Same 27% 29%
CA-21
Raise 42% 30% -12
Lower 23% 29% +6
Remain the Same 27% 28%

As companies increase paychecks, add jobs, bring money back from overseas, and award bonuses to their employees, Americans are already beginning to feel the positive effects of tax reform and a center-right policy agenda.  For example, residents in Congressman Mike Coffman’s congressional district (CO-06) believed their taxes were going up by a 9-point margin in January – today, they believe their taxes are going down by a 17-point margin. In Congressman Kevin Yoder’s congressional district (KS-03), residents went from believing their taxes were going up by a 6-point margin to believing their taxes will go down by 4-point margin.

However, it is naïve to think that the tax plan will sell itself. The American Action Network has been active promoting the benefits of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act since its passage through television and digital advertising, spending more than $5 million since January 1st. This must continue in order to ensure middle-class families know the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is working. Conservatives and supporters of tax reform must remain engaged in actively selling the tax bill to ensure Americans continue to understand the benefits of tax reform.

Example Districts:
Effects of The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
Will the new tax law raise your taxes, lower your taxes or will your taxes remain the same? JANUARY FEBRUARY DIFFERENCE
PA-08
Raise 40% 28% -12
Lower 30% 34% +4
Remain the Same 26% 29%
NY-24
Raise 41% 31% -10
Lower 26% 32% +6
Remain the Same 27% 29%
CO-06
Raise 40% 27% -13
Lower 31% 44% +13
Remain the Same 24% 29%
KS-03
Raise 38% 32% -6
Lower 32% 36% +4
Remain the Same 26% 21%
MN-03
Raise 40% 32% -8
Lower 32% 39% +7
Remain the Same 24% 22%
VA-02
Raise 37% 25% -12
Lower 33% 40% +7
Remain the Same 25% 24%
UT-04
Raise 34% 25% -9
Lower 28% 35% +7
Remain the Same 26% 21%
CA-21
Raise 42% 30% -12
Lower 23% 29% +6
Remain the Same 27% 28%
TX-07
Raise 31% 29% -2
Lower 31% 38% +7
Remain the Same 31% 26%

 


Calvin Moore

Communications Director